First Tunisia's long term ruling dictator fell, then the protests spread to the largest and most powerful Arab country Egypt, and now the belief or expectation among many is that other mass inspired democratic revolutions will spread all over the Middle East. Will democracy come to Syria? Will freedom come to Saudi Arabia? Will Iran which is a non-Arab country on the periphery of the Arab world be caught in the wave of democratization? The answer is: do not hold your breath. While no one can deny that the changes that have occurred in Tunisia and Egypt represent a radical departure from the past. There is good reason to doubt that other democratic reform movements will succeed in neighboring countries.
The two revolts in Tunisia and Egypt were largely secular, and succeeded in the end because the militaries of both countries were unwilling to violently crush the protest movements. This is unlikely to be the case in other countries such as Syria, where the Alewite dominated military would certainly use force to insure the survival of President Bashar al-Assad who inherited power from his father just over 10 years ago. The minority Alewite sect which constitutes only 10% of the Syrian population has ruled Syria for almost 40 years, and will not relinquish power peacefully to the majority Sunnis.
Change is even less likely to come to Saudi Arabia which has been ruled by the same family since 1932. Comparing Egypt to Saudi Arabia is like comparing apples to oranges. While Egypt under Mubarak had some democratic institutions such as a parliament, political parties, as well as a vibrant civil society, social freedoms, and some tolerance of press freedoms. None of those exist in Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy without a constitution, where women are not even allowed to drive. Real democratic change is not likely to come to other oil rich gulf countries either. Other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are relatively more liberal than Saudi Arabia, and some such as Kuwait and Bahrain even hold competitive parliamentary elections. However, the ruling families in those countries will continue to be the final arbitrators of political power through a process of bribery and intimidation. One exception in the Arab gulf area may be Yemen. Yemeni President Ali Abdallah Saleh has pledged to step down when his term expires in 2013, and not to have his son become his successor.
As for Iran, the supreme spiritual leader along with the hard line clergy have total control over the army, police, revolutionary guards, mass media, and judiciary. The last time a protest movement emerged following the 2009 presidential elections the movement was ruthlessly crushed even though the so called green movement's objective was not to overthrow the regime, but instead replace the ruling faction within the regime. An entrenched Iranian clergy who is not willing to even allow intra regime factional rivalry will most definitely not tolerate any attempts to change the regime itself. Furthermore, the hard liners in Iran do enjoy some mass support especially among the uneducated poor, and in rural areas of the country.
Who is next then? Who will follow in Egypt's and Tunisia's footsteps? It will most certainly not be Iran, or Saudi Arabia, or any of the other Arab Gulf States. Democratic transformation will not be coming anytime soon to Syria or Jordan either. The democratic wave will not go past Egypt where the euphoria over the removal of Hosni Mubarak will soon die down, and be replaced with the realization that the road ahead towards democratic transformation will be messy and anything but smooth. While democracy is a preferable system of government, it is far from perfect and will not necessarily cure all ills plaguing society.
