Doug Short's picture

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

Chris Puplava's picture

How the markets behave in the coming weeks will go a long way to help determine if the September-October correction was the start of a new bear market or just a normal correction in a bull market...

Sheraz Mian's picture

Favorable looking headlines from China and Europe and a mixed batch of earnings reports provide the backdrop for today’s trading action. The GDP report out of China shows that country’s growth falling to its level in years, but it nevertheless came in better than expected.

Marc Chandler's picture

The drop in U.S. bond yields is perhaps the biggest surprise for investors this year. The gradual decline in Federal Reserve buying, faster growth, and the prospects for a rate hike in 2015 were expected to lift bond yields.

Michael Pettis's picture

After last week’s tumultuous markets one of my clients sent me an email saying “I am so relieved your constant talk about worsening imbalances kept us from getting too complacent. Things really are as bad as you keep saying.”

Sheraz Mian's picture

Friday’s strong finish to last week’s extremely volatile session may not be the end of the market’s weak run. We must add, however, that this morning’s weak indicated open isn’t directly related to the issues that weighed on stocks last week.

Tom McClellan's picture

When the McClellan A-D Summation Index makes a big move in a short amount of time, that action contains important information. This week, I’ll show a pair of charts that help to make this point.

Sheraz Mian's picture

Stocks turned around Thursday afternoon to close the session modestly in the green and start today’s session on a very positive note. The favorable shift notwithstanding, market sentiment remains fragile and...

Doug Short's picture

When looking at the four big economic indicators used by NBER for timing recessions, it appears the economy may be nearing stall speed. Here is an update using the latest release of Industrial Production...

Jeff Rubin's picture

Part of the impetus behind constructing new pipelines to carry bitumen from northern Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast, Kitimat on the Pacific, or even all the way across the country to Saint John, New Brunswick was to help close the substantial discount between Canadian oil and world prices.

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