When is this gold bear market going to end? There’s a question to which we’d all like to know the answer. I actually have gold and gold stocks on a short-term buy signal at the moment. They’re bouncing from oversold levels, as I suggested last week they would.
Stocks today are expected to continue the positive momentum from last week, pushing the major indexes even deeper into record territory. Positive data out of Germany and more follow-through from China’s surprise rate-cut last week should help...
Latest net foreign inflows to U.S. markets came in the highest on record as incoming data suggests U.S. economic growth to accelerate. The Russell 2000 and the junk bond market also appear to be stabilizing.
Today’s market promises to be one of those nice global central bank-driven rallies that we have become accustomed to seeing in recent years. The Chinese central bank is the main driver today, though positive commentary from Mario Draghi is also adding to bullish sentiment.
There is now a very interesting initiative on the Swiss ballot, which will require the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to hold 20 percent of its reserves in gold. The voters will decide on November 30. I won’t predict the vote, but I want to discuss the likely impact of a yes vote.
The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for October is now available. The index rose 0.9 percent to 105.5. September was revised downward to 104.3 percent (2004 = 100). The latest number came in above the 0.6 percent forecast by Investing.com.
Following a 5-month stint in positive territory, the HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI shows Output contracts for the first time in six months.
There is plenty of data out today and it is generally reinforcing our three many thematic points: divergence, weak commodities, especially energy, and the slowing of the Chinese economy. This is helping the U.S. dollar and global bonds, but weighing on equities.
The topic of ‘currency war’ has been bantered about in financial circles since at least the term was first used by Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega in September 2010. Recently, the currency war has escalated, and a ‘sanctions war’ against Russia has broken out.
Today’s housing data was broadly mixed, with Starts coming a shade below estimates and Permits a tad above consensus levels. The Starts weakness was primarily in the multi-family (or apartment buildings) category, which tends to be volatile on a month-to-month basis.