Brazil's northern state of Roraima, which shares a lengthy border with Venezuela, will create an emergency Cabinet to address the issues stemming from the influx of some 30,000 Venezuelans who are fleeing deteriorating economic conditions. A shortage of basic goods in Venezuela has driven thousands more of its citizens to leave for Colombia and other areas of Brazil, a figure that is likely to grow.
In August, when Colombia partially reopened its border with Venezuela, more than 1.7 million Venezuelans crossed over in a matter of weeks. Most bought basic items such as food and medicine that are in short supply in their country. While some returned to Venezuela, others remained in Colombia, seeking better economic conditions.
The wave of departures from Venezuela has been ongoing for the past few years, but until recently, many of the emigrants were from the professional classes or had the financial means to leave. However, if the Venezuelan economy continues to flounder, more people will be driven out. In Brazil, for example, local authorities said that many Venezuelans are staying in border cities in northern Brazil, trying to save enough money to travel to bigger cities like Sao Paulo. The economy in Roraima, while better than that in Venezuela, is struggling, and it does not have the financial means to support Venezuela's economic refugees.
The outlook for the Venezuelan economy is dire. The United Nations’ Economic Commission forecasts an 8 percent contraction in the Venezuelan economy in 2016 and another 4 percent drop in 2017. Inflation there, measured year-on-year, reached 705 percent in September, while the country’s international reserves have dropped by almost $4.4 billion since January, reaching $11.9 billion in September. A significant increase in the price of oil does not look likely anytime soon, meaning the Venezuelan government will be unable to increase imports of food and other basic products. All of this signals an even greater exodus of its citizens in the year ahead.
"Brazil Wrestles With Influx of Venezuelans As Mass Exodus Continues" is republished with permission of Stratfor.
