This morning's release of the June Existing-Home Sales shows the highest sales in eight years to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million units from a slight downward revision of 5.32 million in May (previously 5.35 million). The Investing.com consensus was for 5.40 million. The latest number represents a 3.2% increase from the previous month and a 9.6% increase year-over-year.
Here is an excerpt from today's report from the National Association of Realtors.
"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says backed by June's solid gain in closings, this year's spring buying season has been the strongest since the downturn. "Buyers have come back in force, leading to the strongest past two months in sales since early 2007," he said. "This wave of demand is being fueled by a year-plus of steady job growth and an improving economy that's giving more households the financial wherewithal and incentive to buy."
Adds Yun, "June sales were also likely propelled by the spring's initial phase of rising mortgage rates, which usually prods some prospective buyers to buy now rather than wait until later when borrowing costs could be higher." [Full Report]
For a longer-term perspective, here is a snapshot of the data series, which comes from the National Association of Realtors. The data since January 1999 is available in the St. Louis Fed's FRED repository here.
Over this time frame we clearly see the Real Estate Bubble, which peaked in 2005 and then fell dramatically. Sales were volatile for the first year or so following the Great Recession. The latest estimate puts us back to the general level around the turn of the century.
The Population-Adjusted Reality
Now let's examine the data with a simple population adjustment. The Census Bureau's mid-month population estimates show a 15.6% increase in the US population since the turn of the century. The snapshot below is an overlay of the NAR's annualized estimates with a population-adjusted version.
Existing-home sales are 5% above the NAR's January 2000 estimate. The population-adjusted version is 8.2% below the turn-of-the-century sales.
For additional perspectives on residential real estate, here is the complete list of our monthly updates:
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- FHFA House Price Index
- NAHB Housing Market Index
- New Residential Sales
- New Residential Housing Starts
- New Residential Building Permits
Related podcast interview:
MBA's Michael Fratantoni on the State of the US Housing Market
