Nick Barisheff's Blog

Worldwide economic uncertainty has created a growing interest in precious metals as a way to preserve wealth. Today, global risks for investors include currency devaluation, sovereign debt defaults, bond market collapses and stock market losses, all underpinned by ever-increasing government debt.

The macro-economic conditions that have supported gold’s bull run over the past decade have not changed; in fact, they’ve become progressively worse. This is the calm before the storm, and the intra-day low of US$1,535 an ounce two weeks ago may well have been a bottom.

I’d like to focus on one important idea: the direct relationship between the rising price of gold and the rising levels of government debt that result in currency debasement. Since we measure investment performance in currencies a clear understanding of the outlook for currencies is critical.

Numerous commentaries in the media, both on television and in print, would have us believe that gold is a bad investment. Headlines warning investors to avoid the yellow metal are commonplace. Examples such as “Five reasons not to own gold”, “Gold is in a bubble”, “Gold as an investment - think again”, “Gold is a bad hedge”, “Gold is a pointless rock,” and “Why gold is a bad investment” can be found with a simple Google search on gold and investment.

As we near the end of the first quarter of 2011, the potential for a widening of the uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East has pushed oil prices past the $100 mark. Long before the riots began, commodity prices had risen to uncomfortable levels, having soared over 30 percent in a matter of months.

Two years ago, in our Annual Report, we correctly predicted that 2009 would be the year of print-and-spend; that gold prices would soar; that government response to mounting debt would increase currency risk; and that inflation, not deflation, was an issue because the US Federal Reserve has an unlimited ability for currency creation. Over the past year, conditions have deteriorated as these events continued to play out, and once again precious metals prices were the beneficiaries.

Good afternoon. It is a pleasure to return to the Empire Club to discuss the outlook for gold and precious metals in 2011. I know this may appear to some to be an enviable job—getting to speak about the one asset class that seems to continually out-perform all others year after year—but it is a double edged sword.

As confidence in global currencies wanes, the world's appetite for gold will increase.

Investors should be gravely concerned about the future of their portfolios, according to a newly released report from Bullion Management Group Inc (BMG). The reason? Because today’s fiscal and monetary policies have set the stage for a wrenching period of currency devaluation, portfolio destruction and potentially devastating inflation.

Most investors have a deep-seated belief that bonds are a safe investment while gold is risky and volatile. If we explore this belief with an open mind, however, we will find that gold, not bonds, offers vastly superior wealth protection.